Platform Ecosystem — Engineering Plan
Global Risk · Food Security · Natural Resource Management
05

Food Security Platform — Engineering Detail

GeoAI AgriNexus (Google.org-funded). Climate-driver-led, not commodity-led — but the build list is commodity-shaped, because what has to be constructed is a crop-type layer, a yield method and a calendar per commodity. Same three-clock structure as Global Risk: what the crop is doing now, what this season will produce, and how the calendar itself moves under climate change. Currently maize-centric; EUDR compliance is confirmed scope (Decision #3, resolved).

Fig. 4 — The build matrix

Clock 1 · In-seasonWhat the crop is doing now — extent, condition, anomaly
Clock 2 · Seasonal outlookWhat this season will produce — yield to harvest
Clock 3 · Climate-adjustedHow the calendar and suitability move — CMIP6 forced
Maizecurrent platform focus
Built — reuseWorldCereal 10 m + NDVI/EVI condition; GEOGLAM Crop Monitor
PartnerNASA Harvest in-season yield methodology (NDVI/EVI/SIF)
Partner + buildDSSAT or PCSE/WOFOST calendar shift — engine choice is Decision #13
RiceSAR-favourable
Partner + buildservir-aces (Bhutan precedent) + Sentinel-1 flooding signal; RLCMS Vietnam rice extent
New buildTransfer the Harvest methodology to rice — not a like-for-like port
Partner + buildDSSAT rice against monsoon-onset shift
Wheatstrongest existing method
Built — reuseICIMOD in-season wheat mapping on GEE — >85% accuracy midseason
Built — reuseSame pipeline, finalised at harvest — ~90% for rainfed area
Partner + buildDSSAT wheat — heat stress at grain fill is the operative signal
Sorghum & milletSahel staples
New buildNo open crop-type product — servir-aces regional training effort
PartnerFEWS NET / FAO GIEWS national statistics only, no EO yield method
Partner + buildDSSAT sorghum/millet — the Sahel is where this clock matters most
Cassavaroot crop
GapNo open product; the perennial canopy signal is genuinely hard
GapFAOSTAT / national statistics only — no in-season path
GapThin crop-model support for cassava across the open engines
Soystrong outside Africa
PartnerWell-served in Brazil/Argentina; thin elsewhere
PartnerUSDA FAS PSD + NASA Harvest
PartnerDSSAT soy — mature and widely calibrated
CocoaEUDR commodity
PartnerFDP cocoa_model_2026a — 10 m pan-tropical probability surface (threshold it yourself), CC BY 4.0, built on Google's Satellite Embedding. Not yet peer-reviewed.
Different questionTree crops are a compliance question, not a seasonal-yield question — see F6
PartnerSuitability shift in the West African cocoa belt — well-studied literature
CoffeeEUDR commodity
PartnerFDP coffee_model_2026a — same family: 10 m, CC BY 4.0, 2025a/2025b/2026a versions, backfill to 2017–2025 underway.
Different questionCompliance, not seasonal yield — see F6
PartnerAltitude-band suitability shift — the clearest climate signal of any commodity here
RubberEUDR commodity
PartnerFDP rubber_model_2026a — 10 m, CC BY 4.0. Plus Forest Persistence v0 at 30 m as a companion layer.
Different questionCompliance, not seasonal yield — see F6
GapLittle published suitability work to adopt
Palm oilEUDR commodity
PartnerFDP palm probability model — 10 m, palm_model_2026a. Earlier drafts called palm the missing fourth; it is not. Cocoa, coffee, palm and rubber are all published.
Different questionCompliance, not seasonal yield — see F6
PartnerSuitability modelling exists in the deforestation-driver literature
Rangeland foragepastoral systems
Built — reuseRDST — NDVI, vegetation anomaly, VCI; operational in Zambia
New buildSeasonal forage outlook from CHIRPS + the ENSO pillar
New buildCMIP6 rangeland productivity — pastoral systems are under-served throughout
Built inside SERVIR — reuse, do not rebuild Adopt an external open tool or dataset New build work, on top of an open foundation Genuine gap — ship with an explicit confidence flag A different question, answered elsewhere in the platform
What the matrix says at a glance. The cereals column is in good shape — wheat is nearly complete, maize and rice are close. The build weight sits in two places: the six commodities that need a crop-type layer built from scratch through servir-aces (Decision #20, unprioritised), and Clock 3 across the board, which depends entirely on the DSSAT-versus-PCSE/WOFOST bake-off that has not been scoped (Decision #13). Cassava is the honest failure — a staple for hundreds of millions with no usable EO method on any clock.

Fig. 5 — How the elements interact

NOAA / IRI / BoM — ENSO CHIRPS / TAMSAT / ICPAC Sentinel-1 / -2 · Landsat WorldCereal · FDP maps GFW alert stack (§06) FEWS NET · GIEWS · VAM Ingestion → common staging, every product cataloged as a STAC item §07 SHARED LAYER Field-boundary backbone — Fields of the World, 10 m, ~3.17 B polygons EVERY LAYER BELOW IS A VALUE ATTACHED TO A FIELD POLYGON — NOT A STANDALONE MAP Commodity modules — eleven crops, three clocks each MAIZE RICE WHEAT SORGHUM CASSAVA SOY COCOA COFFEE RUBBER PALM FORAGE every module emits the same object — FieldObservation (F1) Exposure & outcome join (F3) — the same service Global Risk calls (§04 E3) PEOPLE — IPC · WFP VAM · WorldPop ENVIRONMENT — GFW deforestation alerts ASSETS — FAOSTAT · USDA PSD · market prices Clock 1 — in-season Extent, condition, anomaly. Answers: what is in the ground now. Clock 2 — seasonal outlook Yield to harvest, production estimate. Answers: will there be enough. Clock 3 — climate-adjusted Calendar shift, suitability shift. Answers: what to plant, and when. one field-keyed data model, three computations (F2) Domain agents, MCP-wrapped (F4) — registered in the Agent2Agent registry (§02) Field & Crop-Type Calendar Yield & Production Food Insecurity (F5) EUDR Compliance (F6) Open access — OGC API · STAC · advisories to farmers and ministries HUMAN-APPROVAL CHECKPOINT BEFORE PUBLICATION EUDR compliance channel RESTRICTED ACCESS · LEGAL EVIDENTIARY RECORD

Fig. 5 — The field polygon is the join key for everything above it, and the EUDR path is the one output that leaves under different access rules.

The backbone and exposure layers

Field boundaries are the spatial backbone. Every other layer in this platform is a value attached to a field polygon, not a standalone map — which means the field-boundary layer's quality caps everything built on top of it. Each layer also carries a maturity flag through to the API and UI (detection vs. estimation vs. proxy) rather than presenting uniform confidence.

StackLayerSource & licenceResolution / currencyOpen question
Backbone
the join key
Field boundariesFields of the World (Taylor Geospatial / Microsoft AI for Good) — CC BY-SA 4.010 m, ~3.17 B polygons, 2024–25None — adopt directly
Crop typeWorldCereal (cereals) + Forest Data Partnership (tree crops) + servir-aces (everything else)10 m, seasonal / annualWhich six commodities get built first (Decision #20)
Crop calendarsGEOGLAM Crop Monitor; FAO GIEWSSub-national, maintainedNone — strong and operational
People
who goes hungry
Food insecurity classificationFEWS NET Data Warehouse (FDW API), with WFP VAM / FAO GIEWS fallbackSub-national, monthly outlookCoverage is intermittent by design of the outage — see F5
Population & smallholder vulnerabilityWorldPop + HarvestStat — shared with §04's People stack100 m gridded, annualNone — same service as Global Risk
Environment
what the crop costs
Deforestation alertsGFW Integrated Deforestation Alerts — GLAD-L/S2, RADD, DIST-ALERT10–30 m, 1–12 day latencyNone — shared straight from §06, not built twice
Assets
production and markets
Official production statisticsUSDA FAS PSD; FAOSTAT; HarvestStatNational / subnational, monthly–annualAuthoritative but slow — the reconciliation rule with EO estimates is unwritten
Management practiceOpenET (irrigation) + Sen4CAP (SAR soil state) + USGS LANID methodField-level, in-seasonNo tool does tillage, irrigation and fertilizer together — a genuine new build

Build detail — the six seams

F1 The FieldObservation contract

The counterpart to Global Risk's HazardFootprint, and the same discipline: every commodity module on every clock emits one object, keyed to a field polygon. A crop-type classification, a yield estimate and a calendar shift are three values on the same key — which is what makes them composable into an answer rather than three separate maps a person has to overlay by eye.

FieldObservation field_id FTW polygon reference # the join key commodity enum(11) # the matrix row clock enum(in_season|seasonal|climate) measure crop_type | condition | yield | calendar | practice value + unit + season/year provenance source, model, version, training region maturity enum(detection|estimation|proxy) + note

The maturity enum earns its place immediately. A WorldCereal maize classification is detection; a NASA Harvest in-season yield is estimation; a cassava figure taken from FAOSTAT and disaggregated is proxy. Presenting all three at the same confidence is the single easiest way to lose a ministry's trust.

F2 The three-clock crop engine

Clock 1 is observation, Clock 2 is regression on observation, Clock 3 is a process-based crop model. They are different kinds of computation — but they share the field key and the calendar, so the engine is one pipeline with three exit points rather than three pipelines. Clock 3's engine choice is unresolved and blocking: DSSAT and PCSE/WOFOST are both genuinely open, APSIM Next-Gen is not redistributable, and the bake-off that decides it has not been scoped (Decision #13).

clock 1 → EO composite → classify → condition index clock 2 → clock 1 + calendar + practice → yield regression → production clock 3 → DSSAT | PCSE/WOFOST, forced by CMIP6 → shifted calendar → feeds back into clock 2's calendar input, next season

Note the feedback arrow: Clock 3's output is not a report, it is an input to Clock 2. A climate-adjusted calendar that only ever renders on a dashboard has not been integrated.

F3 The exposure and outcome join

The same service Global Risk uses (§04, E3), called with different stacks. Food Security's distinctive requirement is that the outcome layer — who is actually food-insecure — is not derived from the platform's own data; it comes from FEWS NET or IPC, which are human-analyst products. The join has to carry that distinction rather than blur an EO estimate and an IPC phase into one number.

F4 The crop-agent contract

Identical in shape to §04's E4. The domain expertise being encoded is agronomic: the Field & Crop-Type Agent flags low-confidence classifications to an agronomy team rather than publishing them, and the Yield Agent passes its estimate downstream as an input, never as a final answer.

F5 The graceful-degradation contract — the distinctive one

FEWS NET was suspended for roughly six months in early 2025 amid U.S. foreign-assistance restructuring, then resumed limited operations; as of August 2026 regular reporting is halted specifically for Somalia, Afghanistan and Yemen despite active acute food insecurity in all three. This is not a hypothetical risk to design around — it is the current state. The Food Insecurity Classification Agent is therefore built with an explicit fallback path, and the fallback is stated in the answer, not silently substituted.

try FEWS NET FDW classification → return phase + source + as_of on outage or country exclusion → fall back: platform EO indices + FAO GIEWS + WFP mVAM → return estimate + DEGRADED flag + which source is missing + why → never present a fallback estimate as an IPC/FEWS phase

F6 The EUDR compliance envelope

The one output path in this platform that leaves under different rules. EUDR requires plot-level geolocation, a 31 December 2020 deforestation-free cutoff, and a due-diligence statement filed to an EU registry — which makes it an evidentiary legal record, not a monitoring product. It needs stricter access control than open monitoring data, and it should combine the platform's own field and crop-type layers with the open GFW alert stack rather than standing up a parallel deforestation detector. Application dates have already moved twice (currently large/medium operators by 30 Dec 2026, micro/small by 30 June 2027) and must be reconfirmed against the official EU source before anything is promised to a user (Decision #19).

plot geolocation (FTW polygon or operator-supplied) → crop type (FDP tree-crop map) → GFW alert intersection since 2020-12-31 cutoff → risk determination + immutable evidence bundle → due-diligence statement, restricted channel, audit-logged

F7Forest Data Partnership — consume the maps, or retrain the models

Earlier drafts of this plan treated FDP as a data feed: pan-tropical commodity maps to pull in and overlay. That understates it. FDP publishes the trained models, not only their outputs — google/forest-data-partnership (MIT) carries downloadable TensorFlow models, Earth Engine integration notebooks and a method paper (arXiv:2405.09530), and the maps themselves are CC BY 4.0. Attribution is "Produced by Google for the Forest Data Partnership."

Why that matters here. A published map is a fixed answer at a fixed threshold; a published model is something a hub can fine-tune on its own reference data. §05's largest build item is regional crop-type classifiers through servir-aces (Decision #20). For the four EUDR tree crops, that build may not be necessary — the alternative is retraining an FDP model on hub reference plots, which is a materially smaller task than training from scratch and inherits a pan-tropical baseline. This should be tested before Decision #20 prioritises tree crops for a from-scratch build.

The models are built on Google's Satellite Embedding (AlphaEarth Foundations), already named in §03's foundation-model stack. FDP is therefore the plan's clearest example of that stack in production use rather than in principle — worth reading as a template for how §03's other foundation models get applied.

The partnership opening, which is closer than it looks. SERVIR is not listed as an FDP partner. But FDP's published data contributors include the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT — which is the lead institution of SERVIR's own Tropical South America hub (§07). The bridge already exists at the institutional level. And the fit is two-way rather than a favour in one direction: FDP's workstreams want validated regional reference data, which is precisely what SERVIR's hubs and Collect Earth Online sample archives produce; SERVIR needs pan-tropical tree-crop coverage it would otherwise build. One caveat to carry into any such conversation — FDP's own catalogue notes these datasets are not yet peer-reviewed, so they are an operational input, not a citable ground truth.

Already built

Prototype

Starting Use Case pipeline

Working, tested (Phases 1–2) LLM advisory pipeline against "Tell me about El Niño in [AOI]"; Phases 3–6 defined but not yet prompt-tested.

Data

Six-pillar data inventory

NOAA/IRI/BoM, ICPAC/TAMSAT/CHIRPS, FAO ASIS/FEWS NET/WaPOR, WorldCereal/GIEWS, WorldPop/IPC/VAM, EM-DAT — already assembled.

Partner

NASA Harvest

Confirmed technical partner; published smallholder in-season yield methodology (NDVI/EVI/SIF).

Code

servir-aces + DSSAT service

SERVIR/servir-aces (Sept 2025), plus dssat_service, DssatWeb and ml_crop_yield_training — a DSSAT integration already exists in the org (§02).

Where to partner, what to build

GapStatusPartner
Crop-type: rice, sorghum, millet, cassava, palm oil, soyPartner + Buildservir-aces (internal, HKH) — working EE+TensorFlow toolkit, Bhutan rice precedent; needs regional training effort, not a new tool.
Field-boundary layerPartnerFields of the World (Taylor Geospatial / Microsoft AI for Good) — open, CC BY-SA 4.0, ~3.17B polygons.
EUDR tree-crop coveragePartnerGoogle Earth AI / Forest Data Partnership — open pan-tropical maps for cocoa, coffee, palm and rubber (all four), CC BY 4.0, 10 m. The trained models are downloadable (google/forest-data-partnership, MIT), so these can be retrained on hub reference data rather than only consumed — see F7.
Climate-adjusted crop calendarsPartner + BuildDSSAT or PCSE/WOFOST (both genuinely open) — APSIM Next-Gen is not redistributable.
EUDR compliance/due-diligence workflowPartner + AdoptWhisp — forestdatapartnership/whisp, MIT, on PyPI as openforis-whisp (Open Foris / FAO-associated, AIM4Forests). Callable today: live API at whisp.openforis.org/api/docs up to 5,000 geometries, plus a QGIS plugin and a TypeScript app. "Convergence of evidence" zonal stats producing Risk_PCrop / Risk_ACrop / Risk_Timber. Satelligence/Nadar.earth/Agridence for full workflow features.
FEWS NET data accessPartnerUSAID / State Dept BHR — formal attribution/data-sharing agreement required.
Agricultural management practiceNew buildNo tool does all three: OpenET (irrigation) + Sen4CAP (SAR/soil-state) + USGS LANID methodology fused into a new model.

Domain agents

AgentMCP-wrapped toolsWorkflow it encodes
Field & Crop-Type Agentservir-aces + Fields of the World + WorldCerealBoundaries → cloud-free composite → classify → flag low-confidence to agronomy team.
Ag. Management Practice AgentNew-build tillage/irrigation/fertilizer modelField classification → SAR + optical time series → infer practice → attach confidence + ground-truth basis.
Climate-Adjusted Calendar AgentDSSAT/PCSE crop model + ENSO climate-outlook pillarClimate outlook → run crop model → shift baseline calendar → hand to Yield Agent, not just a dashboard.
Yield & Production AgentNASA Harvest methodology + WorldCereal/GIEWSCrop type + calendar + practice → estimate yield → pass downstream as an input, not a final answer.
Food Insecurity Classification AgentFEWS NET FDW API + WFP VAM (graceful-degradation contract, F5)Yield + market + climate → attempt FEWS NET classification → on outage, fall back to EO/GIEWS/mVAM and say so explicitly.
EUDR Compliance AgentGFW alert stack (shared with NRM) + Forest Data Partnership mapsPlot geolocation → check against deforestation-alert layer since Dec 31 2020 cutoff → generate or route due-diligence statement.
AgriNexus Orchestrator AgentAll agents above, via A2ACall climate → impact → crop/yield → exposure-vulnerability → outcome agents in sequence, citing each one's data currency before returning an answer.

Use cases from the SERVIR archive

Twenty-three hub-submitted cases already sit behind this platform's PDD. The twelve below are the ones documented publicly with a named institution and a named decision — the strongest evidence that the matrix above is aimed at real demand.

West Africa · ICRISAT

Crop type mapping and condition assessment — Senegal

User
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Infrastructure; DAPSA named as target next user
Tool
Field survey + remote sensing; inter-annual NDVI / LSWI comparison in the Peanut Basin
Decision
National crop area estimation and yield forecasting, replacing ground-only agricultural surveys
Matrix
Sorghum & millet × Clocks 1–2 · Backbone
servirglobal.net/services/crop-type-mapping-and-condition-assessment-senegal
Hindu Kush Himalaya · ICIMOD

In-season wheat mapping — Afghanistan

User
Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL)
Tool
GEE wheat mapping — rough estimate at season start, >85% midseason, ~90% at harvest for rainfed
Decision
Yearly national wheat production estimates used for food-security planning
Matrix
Wheat × Clocks 1–2 — the cell already marked "built"
servirglobal.net/news — Afghanistan wheat mapping
Hindu Kush Himalaya · ICIMOD

Rice mapping from phone plus satellite — Nepal

User
Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MoALD)
Tool
GeoFairy (farmer smartphone reporting) + RiceMapEngine + CropScape
Decision
Rice area and health in the Terai — evidence for policymakers and resource allocation during floods
Matrix
Rice × Clock 1 · Backbone + People
appliedsciences.nasa.gov — phone + satellite rice mapping in Nepal
Eastern & Southern Africa · RCMRD

Kenya National Crop Monitor

User
Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, Livestock and Fisheries, with GEOGLAM
Tool
National instance of the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor approach
Decision
Early warning of drought-related crop failure so government can act pre-emptively — a comparable Uganda case released $4 M for ~150,000 people
Matrix
Maize × Clocks 1–2 · People
geospatialworld.net — Kenya national crop monitor
Eastern & Southern Africa

Crop insurance sampling — Greater Horn of Africa

Users
Kenya Government crop insurance programme; QUIIC (Quality Agricultural Index Insurance Certification for East Africa)
Tool
Regional Cropland Assessment and Monitoring Service — CHIRPS, Landsat/Sentinel crop-type, climate outlooks, market data
Decision
Geospatially-informed sampling for insurance verification — "over 70% cost reduction and reduced sampling time"
Matrix
Maize × Clocks 1–2 · Assets
servirglobal.net — Regional Cropland Assessment and Monitoring Service
Eastern & Southern Africa

Crop insurance payout targeting — Kenya

Users
RCMRD; NASA Harvest; Swiss Re Foundation, through Kenya's agricultural insurance programme
Tool
Satellite vegetation-index mapping of crop health and farm productivity
Decision
Which farms are identified as failing and therefore receive payouts — reaching "425,000 farmers in 2019, a more than 1,300% increase since 2015"
Matrix
Maize × Clock 1 · People + Assets
appliedsciences.nasa.gov — Kenya insurance programme
West Africa

P-LOCUST — Desert Locust risk mapping

Users
AGRHYMET Regional Centre (Niger), which launched the service; CLCPRO; CIRAD
Tool
Locust prediction model plus a real-time ecological monitoring platform
Decision
Where to concentrate locust monitoring and preventive control before an outbreak threatens crops
Matrix
Sorghum & millet × Clock 1 · Environment
servir.icrisat.org/desert-locust-risk-mapping-p-locust
Southeast Asia · ADPC

Land and Agriculture Monitoring Project — Myanmar

User
USAID/Burma
Tool
LAMP — vegetation productivity, forest dynamics, cultivation patterns and fire activity with before/after comparison
Decision
Assessing landscape-scale programme performance and tracking rice cultivation change
Matrix
Rice × Clock 1 · Environment
servir.adpc.net/tools/lamp_detail.html
Hindu Kush Himalaya · ICIMOD

Agriculture Atlas of Nepal

Users
Ministry of Agricultural Development; National Planning Commission; DHM; Central Bureau of Statistics; Department of Irrigation
Tool
Web-GIS with district-level production for cereals, cash crops, legumes, vegetables, fruits and livestock
Decision
Agricultural planning and resource allocation at district level
Matrix
Multi-commodity × Clock 2 · Assets
servir.icimod.org/science-applications/agriculture-atlas-of-nepal
Amazonia

Mapping soil fertility — Ecuador

User
Ministerio de Agricultura y Ganadería (MAG)
Tool
Digital Soil Mapping — 30 m nutrient maps plus degradation assessment (organic carbon, erosion)
Decision
MAG's national plan for participatory soil conservation — where to act on fertility loss and degradation
Matrix
Management practice layer · Backbone
servirglobal.net/services/mapping-soil-fertility-ecuador
West Africa · ICRISAT

WENDOU — ephemeral water bodies for pastoralists, Senegal

Users
AVSF (Agronomes et Vétérinaires Sans Frontières) disseminates; Jokalante handles phone/radio delivery
Tool
WENDOU platform, pushed out via community radio, relay antennas and text/audio SMS in several languages
Decision
Where pastoralists move livestock and how communities plan around seasonal pond availability
Matrix
Rangeland forage × Clock 1 · People
servir.icrisat.org/monitoring-ephemeral-water-bodies-wendou
Eastern & Southern Africa

Climate-informed decision making — regional analyst cohort

Users
UCSB Climate Hazards Center; RCMRD; Kenya Forest Service; WFP; IGAD ICPAC; analysts from Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi
Tool
CHIRPS, Early Warning Explorer, ClimateSERV, FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System
Decision
Day-to-day agricultural drought monitoring, index insurance and seasonal scenario development by national analysts
Matrix
Cross-commodity × Clocks 1–3 — and the capacity ladder in §03
agrilinks.org — CHC, RCMRD and SERVIR climate-informed decision making

Five further Food Security services describe a user class rather than a named ministry and are carried as capability evidence: the Regional Drought Monitoring and Outlook System (South Asia), National Agricultural Drought Watch (Nepal), Rangelands Decision Support Tool (Zambia operational, Kenya in development), Farm Action Toolkit (Bhutan) and Southeast Asia Drought Watch.

Hub-sequencing mismatch, restated against the evidence. The PDD names South Asia, Tropical South America and Mesoamerica as associated hubs — but the documented demand above clusters in Eastern & Southern Africa (Kenya crop monitor, two insurance cases, the analyst cohort) and West Africa (Senegal, P-LOCUST, WENDOU), which match the 9 and 3 hub-submitted cases respectively. Sequencing capacity investment should follow this, not the PDD's associated-hub list (Decision #8's residual).
FEWS NET operational risk. Reporting is halted for Somalia, Afghanistan and Yemen as of August 2026 despite active acute food insecurity in all three. F5 is the engineering answer; it is not a solution to the underlying risk, which stays worth flagging to funders and users rather than quietly absorbing.
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