Food Security Platform — Engineering Detail
GeoAI AgriNexus (Google.org-funded). Climate-driver-led, not commodity-led — but the build list is commodity-shaped, because what has to be constructed is a crop-type layer, a yield method and a calendar per commodity. Same three-clock structure as Global Risk: what the crop is doing now, what this season will produce, and how the calendar itself moves under climate change. Currently maize-centric; EUDR compliance is confirmed scope (Decision #3, resolved).
Fig. 4 — The build matrix
servir-aces (Bhutan precedent) + Sentinel-1 flooding signal; RLCMS Vietnam rice extentservir-aces regional training effortcocoa_model_2026a — 10 m pan-tropical probability surface (threshold it yourself), CC BY 4.0, built on Google's Satellite Embedding. Not yet peer-reviewed.coffee_model_2026a — same family: 10 m, CC BY 4.0, 2025a/2025b/2026a versions, backfill to 2017–2025 underway.rubber_model_2026a — 10 m, CC BY 4.0. Plus Forest Persistence v0 at 30 m as a companion layer.palm_model_2026a. Earlier drafts called palm the missing fourth; it is not. Cocoa, coffee, palm and rubber are all published.servir-aces (Decision #20, unprioritised), and Clock 3 across the board, which depends entirely on the DSSAT-versus-PCSE/WOFOST bake-off that has not been scoped (Decision #13). Cassava is the honest failure — a staple for hundreds of millions with no usable EO method on any clock.
Fig. 5 — How the elements interact
Fig. 5 — The field polygon is the join key for everything above it, and the EUDR path is the one output that leaves under different access rules.
The backbone and exposure layers
Field boundaries are the spatial backbone. Every other layer in this platform is a value attached to a field polygon, not a standalone map — which means the field-boundary layer's quality caps everything built on top of it. Each layer also carries a maturity flag through to the API and UI (detection vs. estimation vs. proxy) rather than presenting uniform confidence.
| Stack | Layer | Source & licence | Resolution / currency | Open question |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backbone the join key | Field boundaries | Fields of the World (Taylor Geospatial / Microsoft AI for Good) — CC BY-SA 4.0 | 10 m, ~3.17 B polygons, 2024–25 | None — adopt directly |
| Crop type | WorldCereal (cereals) + Forest Data Partnership (tree crops) + servir-aces (everything else) | 10 m, seasonal / annual | Which six commodities get built first (Decision #20) | |
| Crop calendars | GEOGLAM Crop Monitor; FAO GIEWS | Sub-national, maintained | None — strong and operational | |
| People who goes hungry | Food insecurity classification | FEWS NET Data Warehouse (FDW API), with WFP VAM / FAO GIEWS fallback | Sub-national, monthly outlook | Coverage is intermittent by design of the outage — see F5 |
| Population & smallholder vulnerability | WorldPop + HarvestStat — shared with §04's People stack | 100 m gridded, annual | None — same service as Global Risk | |
| Environment what the crop costs | Deforestation alerts | GFW Integrated Deforestation Alerts — GLAD-L/S2, RADD, DIST-ALERT | 10–30 m, 1–12 day latency | None — shared straight from §06, not built twice |
| Assets production and markets | Official production statistics | USDA FAS PSD; FAOSTAT; HarvestStat | National / subnational, monthly–annual | Authoritative but slow — the reconciliation rule with EO estimates is unwritten |
| Management practice | OpenET (irrigation) + Sen4CAP (SAR soil state) + USGS LANID method | Field-level, in-season | No tool does tillage, irrigation and fertilizer together — a genuine new build |
Build detail — the six seams
F1 The FieldObservation contract
The counterpart to Global Risk's HazardFootprint, and the same discipline: every commodity module on every clock emits one object, keyed to a field polygon. A crop-type classification, a yield estimate and a calendar shift are three values on the same key — which is what makes them composable into an answer rather than three separate maps a person has to overlay by eye.
The maturity enum earns its place immediately. A WorldCereal maize classification is detection; a NASA Harvest in-season yield is estimation; a cassava figure taken from FAOSTAT and disaggregated is proxy. Presenting all three at the same confidence is the single easiest way to lose a ministry's trust.
F2 The three-clock crop engine
Clock 1 is observation, Clock 2 is regression on observation, Clock 3 is a process-based crop model. They are different kinds of computation — but they share the field key and the calendar, so the engine is one pipeline with three exit points rather than three pipelines. Clock 3's engine choice is unresolved and blocking: DSSAT and PCSE/WOFOST are both genuinely open, APSIM Next-Gen is not redistributable, and the bake-off that decides it has not been scoped (Decision #13).
Note the feedback arrow: Clock 3's output is not a report, it is an input to Clock 2. A climate-adjusted calendar that only ever renders on a dashboard has not been integrated.
F3 The exposure and outcome join
The same service Global Risk uses (§04, E3), called with different stacks. Food Security's distinctive requirement is that the outcome layer — who is actually food-insecure — is not derived from the platform's own data; it comes from FEWS NET or IPC, which are human-analyst products. The join has to carry that distinction rather than blur an EO estimate and an IPC phase into one number.
F4 The crop-agent contract
Identical in shape to §04's E4. The domain expertise being encoded is agronomic: the Field & Crop-Type Agent flags low-confidence classifications to an agronomy team rather than publishing them, and the Yield Agent passes its estimate downstream as an input, never as a final answer.
F5 The graceful-degradation contract — the distinctive one
FEWS NET was suspended for roughly six months in early 2025 amid U.S. foreign-assistance restructuring, then resumed limited operations; as of August 2026 regular reporting is halted specifically for Somalia, Afghanistan and Yemen despite active acute food insecurity in all three. This is not a hypothetical risk to design around — it is the current state. The Food Insecurity Classification Agent is therefore built with an explicit fallback path, and the fallback is stated in the answer, not silently substituted.
F6 The EUDR compliance envelope
The one output path in this platform that leaves under different rules. EUDR requires plot-level geolocation, a 31 December 2020 deforestation-free cutoff, and a due-diligence statement filed to an EU registry — which makes it an evidentiary legal record, not a monitoring product. It needs stricter access control than open monitoring data, and it should combine the platform's own field and crop-type layers with the open GFW alert stack rather than standing up a parallel deforestation detector. Application dates have already moved twice (currently large/medium operators by 30 Dec 2026, micro/small by 30 June 2027) and must be reconfirmed against the official EU source before anything is promised to a user (Decision #19).
F7Forest Data Partnership — consume the maps, or retrain the models
Earlier drafts of this plan treated FDP as a data feed: pan-tropical commodity maps to pull in and
overlay. That understates it. FDP publishes the trained models, not only their outputs —
google/forest-data-partnership (MIT) carries downloadable TensorFlow models,
Earth Engine integration notebooks and a method paper (arXiv:2405.09530), and the maps
themselves are CC BY 4.0. Attribution is "Produced by Google for the Forest Data Partnership."
Why that matters here. A published map is a fixed answer at a fixed threshold; a published model is
something a hub can fine-tune on its own reference data. §05's largest build item is regional crop-type
classifiers through servir-aces (Decision #20). For the four EUDR tree crops, that build may not
be necessary — the alternative is retraining an FDP model on hub reference plots, which is a materially
smaller task than training from scratch and inherits a pan-tropical baseline. This should be tested
before Decision #20 prioritises tree crops for a from-scratch build.
The models are built on Google's Satellite Embedding (AlphaEarth Foundations), already named in §03's foundation-model stack. FDP is therefore the plan's clearest example of that stack in production use rather than in principle — worth reading as a template for how §03's other foundation models get applied.
The partnership opening, which is closer than it looks. SERVIR is not listed as an FDP partner. But FDP's published data contributors include the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT — which is the lead institution of SERVIR's own Tropical South America hub (§07). The bridge already exists at the institutional level. And the fit is two-way rather than a favour in one direction: FDP's workstreams want validated regional reference data, which is precisely what SERVIR's hubs and Collect Earth Online sample archives produce; SERVIR needs pan-tropical tree-crop coverage it would otherwise build. One caveat to carry into any such conversation — FDP's own catalogue notes these datasets are not yet peer-reviewed, so they are an operational input, not a citable ground truth.
Already built
Starting Use Case pipeline
Working, tested (Phases 1–2) LLM advisory pipeline against "Tell me about El Niño in [AOI]"; Phases 3–6 defined but not yet prompt-tested.
Six-pillar data inventory
NOAA/IRI/BoM, ICPAC/TAMSAT/CHIRPS, FAO ASIS/FEWS NET/WaPOR, WorldCereal/GIEWS, WorldPop/IPC/VAM, EM-DAT — already assembled.
NASA Harvest
Confirmed technical partner; published smallholder in-season yield methodology (NDVI/EVI/SIF).
servir-aces + DSSAT service
SERVIR/servir-aces (Sept 2025), plus dssat_service, DssatWeb and ml_crop_yield_training — a DSSAT integration already exists in the org (§02).
Where to partner, what to build
| Gap | Status | Partner |
|---|---|---|
| Crop-type: rice, sorghum, millet, cassava, palm oil, soy | Partner + Build | servir-aces (internal, HKH) — working EE+TensorFlow toolkit, Bhutan rice precedent; needs regional training effort, not a new tool. |
| Field-boundary layer | Partner | Fields of the World (Taylor Geospatial / Microsoft AI for Good) — open, CC BY-SA 4.0, ~3.17B polygons. |
| EUDR tree-crop coverage | Partner | Google Earth AI / Forest Data Partnership — open pan-tropical maps for cocoa, coffee, palm and rubber (all four), CC BY 4.0, 10 m. The trained models are downloadable (google/forest-data-partnership, MIT), so these can be retrained on hub reference data rather than only consumed — see F7. |
| Climate-adjusted crop calendars | Partner + Build | DSSAT or PCSE/WOFOST (both genuinely open) — APSIM Next-Gen is not redistributable. |
| EUDR compliance/due-diligence workflow | Partner + Adopt | Whisp — forestdatapartnership/whisp, MIT, on PyPI as openforis-whisp (Open Foris / FAO-associated, AIM4Forests). Callable today: live API at whisp.openforis.org/api/docs up to 5,000 geometries, plus a QGIS plugin and a TypeScript app. "Convergence of evidence" zonal stats producing Risk_PCrop / Risk_ACrop / Risk_Timber. Satelligence/Nadar.earth/Agridence for full workflow features. |
| FEWS NET data access | Partner | USAID / State Dept BHR — formal attribution/data-sharing agreement required. |
| Agricultural management practice | New build | No tool does all three: OpenET (irrigation) + Sen4CAP (SAR/soil-state) + USGS LANID methodology fused into a new model. |
Domain agents
| Agent | MCP-wrapped tools | Workflow it encodes |
|---|---|---|
| Field & Crop-Type Agent | servir-aces + Fields of the World + WorldCereal | Boundaries → cloud-free composite → classify → flag low-confidence to agronomy team. |
| Ag. Management Practice Agent | New-build tillage/irrigation/fertilizer model | Field classification → SAR + optical time series → infer practice → attach confidence + ground-truth basis. |
| Climate-Adjusted Calendar Agent | DSSAT/PCSE crop model + ENSO climate-outlook pillar | Climate outlook → run crop model → shift baseline calendar → hand to Yield Agent, not just a dashboard. |
| Yield & Production Agent | NASA Harvest methodology + WorldCereal/GIEWS | Crop type + calendar + practice → estimate yield → pass downstream as an input, not a final answer. |
| Food Insecurity Classification Agent | FEWS NET FDW API + WFP VAM (graceful-degradation contract, F5) | Yield + market + climate → attempt FEWS NET classification → on outage, fall back to EO/GIEWS/mVAM and say so explicitly. |
| EUDR Compliance Agent | GFW alert stack (shared with NRM) + Forest Data Partnership maps | Plot geolocation → check against deforestation-alert layer since Dec 31 2020 cutoff → generate or route due-diligence statement. |
| AgriNexus Orchestrator Agent | All agents above, via A2A | Call climate → impact → crop/yield → exposure-vulnerability → outcome agents in sequence, citing each one's data currency before returning an answer. |
Use cases from the SERVIR archive
Twenty-three hub-submitted cases already sit behind this platform's PDD. The twelve below are the ones documented publicly with a named institution and a named decision — the strongest evidence that the matrix above is aimed at real demand.
Crop type mapping and condition assessment — Senegal
- User
- Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Infrastructure; DAPSA named as target next user
- Tool
- Field survey + remote sensing; inter-annual NDVI / LSWI comparison in the Peanut Basin
- Decision
- National crop area estimation and yield forecasting, replacing ground-only agricultural surveys
- Matrix
- Sorghum & millet × Clocks 1–2 · Backbone
In-season wheat mapping — Afghanistan
- User
- Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Livestock (MAIL)
- Tool
- GEE wheat mapping — rough estimate at season start, >85% midseason, ~90% at harvest for rainfed
- Decision
- Yearly national wheat production estimates used for food-security planning
- Matrix
- Wheat × Clocks 1–2 — the cell already marked "built"
Rice mapping from phone plus satellite — Nepal
- User
- Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development (MoALD)
- Tool
- GeoFairy (farmer smartphone reporting) + RiceMapEngine + CropScape
- Decision
- Rice area and health in the Terai — evidence for policymakers and resource allocation during floods
- Matrix
- Rice × Clock 1 · Backbone + People
Kenya National Crop Monitor
- User
- Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation, Livestock and Fisheries, with GEOGLAM
- Tool
- National instance of the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor approach
- Decision
- Early warning of drought-related crop failure so government can act pre-emptively — a comparable Uganda case released $4 M for ~150,000 people
- Matrix
- Maize × Clocks 1–2 · People
Crop insurance sampling — Greater Horn of Africa
- Users
- Kenya Government crop insurance programme; QUIIC (Quality Agricultural Index Insurance Certification for East Africa)
- Tool
- Regional Cropland Assessment and Monitoring Service — CHIRPS, Landsat/Sentinel crop-type, climate outlooks, market data
- Decision
- Geospatially-informed sampling for insurance verification — "over 70% cost reduction and reduced sampling time"
- Matrix
- Maize × Clocks 1–2 · Assets
Crop insurance payout targeting — Kenya
- Users
- RCMRD; NASA Harvest; Swiss Re Foundation, through Kenya's agricultural insurance programme
- Tool
- Satellite vegetation-index mapping of crop health and farm productivity
- Decision
- Which farms are identified as failing and therefore receive payouts — reaching "425,000 farmers in 2019, a more than 1,300% increase since 2015"
- Matrix
- Maize × Clock 1 · People + Assets
P-LOCUST — Desert Locust risk mapping
- Users
- AGRHYMET Regional Centre (Niger), which launched the service; CLCPRO; CIRAD
- Tool
- Locust prediction model plus a real-time ecological monitoring platform
- Decision
- Where to concentrate locust monitoring and preventive control before an outbreak threatens crops
- Matrix
- Sorghum & millet × Clock 1 · Environment
Land and Agriculture Monitoring Project — Myanmar
- User
- USAID/Burma
- Tool
- LAMP — vegetation productivity, forest dynamics, cultivation patterns and fire activity with before/after comparison
- Decision
- Assessing landscape-scale programme performance and tracking rice cultivation change
- Matrix
- Rice × Clock 1 · Environment
Agriculture Atlas of Nepal
- Users
- Ministry of Agricultural Development; National Planning Commission; DHM; Central Bureau of Statistics; Department of Irrigation
- Tool
- Web-GIS with district-level production for cereals, cash crops, legumes, vegetables, fruits and livestock
- Decision
- Agricultural planning and resource allocation at district level
- Matrix
- Multi-commodity × Clock 2 · Assets
Mapping soil fertility — Ecuador
- User
- Ministerio de Agricultura y Ganadería (MAG)
- Tool
- Digital Soil Mapping — 30 m nutrient maps plus degradation assessment (organic carbon, erosion)
- Decision
- MAG's national plan for participatory soil conservation — where to act on fertility loss and degradation
- Matrix
- Management practice layer · Backbone
WENDOU — ephemeral water bodies for pastoralists, Senegal
- Users
- AVSF (Agronomes et Vétérinaires Sans Frontières) disseminates; Jokalante handles phone/radio delivery
- Tool
- WENDOU platform, pushed out via community radio, relay antennas and text/audio SMS in several languages
- Decision
- Where pastoralists move livestock and how communities plan around seasonal pond availability
- Matrix
- Rangeland forage × Clock 1 · People
Climate-informed decision making — regional analyst cohort
- Users
- UCSB Climate Hazards Center; RCMRD; Kenya Forest Service; WFP; IGAD ICPAC; analysts from Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi
- Tool
- CHIRPS, Early Warning Explorer, ClimateSERV, FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System
- Decision
- Day-to-day agricultural drought monitoring, index insurance and seasonal scenario development by national analysts
- Matrix
- Cross-commodity × Clocks 1–3 — and the capacity ladder in §03
Five further Food Security services describe a user class rather than a named ministry and are carried as capability evidence: the Regional Drought Monitoring and Outlook System (South Asia), National Agricultural Drought Watch (Nepal), Rangelands Decision Support Tool (Zambia operational, Kenya in development), Farm Action Toolkit (Bhutan) and Southeast Asia Drought Watch.